Tun bayan barkewar rikicin da ke tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine, Turai ta fuskanci matsalar makamashi. Farashin mai da iskar gas ya tashi sosai, wanda hakan ya haifar da hauhawar farashin samar da kayan masarufi masu alaƙa da wannan matsala.
Duk da rashin fa'idodin albarkatu, masana'antar sinadarai ta Turai har yanzu tana da kashi 18 cikin 100 na tallace-tallacen sinadarai a duniya (kimanin yuan tiriliyan 4.4), tana matsayi na biyu bayan Asiya, kuma gida ne ga BASF, babbar mai samar da sinadarai a duniya.
Idan wadatar kayayyaki daga sama ta shiga cikin haɗari, farashin kamfanonin sinadarai na Turai yana ƙaruwa sosai. China, Arewacin Amurka, Gabas ta Tsakiya da sauran ƙasashe sun dogara da albarkatun kansu kuma ba su da tasiri sosai.
A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, farashin makamashi na Turai zai ci gaba da hauhawa, yayin da kamfanonin sinadarai na China za su sami fa'ida mai kyau a farashi yayin da annobar a China ke inganta.
To, ga kamfanonin sinadarai na kasar Sin, waɗanne sinadarai ne za su samar da damammaki?
MDI: An faɗaɗa gibin farashi zuwa CNY/MT 1000
Kamfanonin MDI duk suna amfani da tsari iri ɗaya, tsarin phosgene na ruwa, amma wasu samfuran matsakaici ana iya samar da su ta hanyar amfani da kan kwal da kan iskar gas. Dangane da tushen CO2, methanol da ammonia na roba, China galibi tana amfani da samar da sinadarai na kwal, yayin da Turai da Amurka galibi suna amfani da samar da iskar gas.
A halin yanzu, ƙarfin MDI na China ya kai kashi 41% na jimillar ƙarfin duniya, yayin da Turai ta kai kashi 27%. Ya zuwa ƙarshen watan Fabrairu, farashin samar da MDI tare da iskar gas a matsayin kayan aiki a Turai ya ƙaru da kusan CNY/MT 2000, yayin da a ƙarshen watan Maris, farashin samar da MDI tare da kwal a matsayin kayan aiki ya ƙaru da kusan CNY/MT 1000. Gibin kuɗin ya kai kusan CNY/MT 1000.
Bayanan tushe sun nuna cewa fitar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa kasashen waje ta hanyar amfani da fasahar zamani ta MDI da aka yi amfani da ita wajen sarrafa sinadarai ya kai sama da kashi 50%, ciki har da jimillar fitar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa MT miliyan 1.01 a shekarar 2021, karuwar da ta kai kashi 65% a shekara bayan shekara. MDI kayayyaki ne na kasuwanci na duniya, kuma farashin duniya yana da alaƙa sosai. Ana sa ran hauhawar farashin kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje zai ƙara haɓaka gasa da farashin kayayyakin China.
TDI: An faɗaɗa gibin farashi zuwa 1500 CNY/MT
Kamar MDI, kamfanonin TDI na duniya duk suna amfani da tsarin phosgene, gabaɗaya suna ɗaukar tsarin phosgene na ruwa, amma wasu samfuran matsakaici ana iya samar da su ta hanyar tsarin kan kwal da kan gas.
A ƙarshen watan Fabrairu, farashin samar da MDI tare da iskar gas a matsayin kayan ƙasa a Turai ya ƙaru da kimanin CNY/MT 2,500, yayin da a ƙarshen watan Maris, farashin samar da MDI tare da kwal a matsayin kayan ƙasa ya ƙaru da kusan CNY/MT 1,000. Gibin kuɗin ya faɗaɗa zuwa kusan CNY/MT 1500.
A halin yanzu, ƙarfin TDI na China ya kai kashi 40% na jimillar ƙarfin da duniya ke da shi, kuma Turai ta kai kashi 26%. Saboda haka, hauhawar farashin iskar gas a Turai ba makawa zai haifar da ƙaruwar farashin TDI da kusan CNY 6500 / MT.
A duk duniya, kasar Sin ce babbar mai fitar da kayayyaki daga kasar Sin zuwa kasashen waje. Bisa ga bayanan kwastam, fitar da kayayyaki daga kasar Sin zuwa kasashen waje ya kai kusan kashi 30%.
TDI kuma samfurin ciniki ne na duniya, kuma farashin duniya yana da alaƙa sosai. Ana sa ran hauhawar farashin ƙasashen waje zai ƙara haɓaka gasa a fannin fitar da kayayyaki da farashin kayayyakin China.
Formic acid: Ƙarfin aiki, farashi biyu.
Formic acid yana ɗaya daga cikin sinadarai mafi ƙarfi a wannan shekarar, wanda ya tashi daga CNY/MT 4,400 a farkon shekara zuwa CNY/MT 9,600 kwanan nan. Samar da Formic acid galibi yana farawa ne daga methanol carbonylation zuwa methyl formate, sannan ya koma formic acid. Yayin da methanol ke ci gaba da yawo a cikin tsarin amsawar, sinadarin formic acid shine syngas.
A halin yanzu, China da Turai suna da kashi 57% da 34% na ƙarfin samar da formic acid a duniya bi da bi, yayin da fitar da kayayyaki a cikin gida ya kai sama da kashi 60%. A watan Fabrairu, samar da formic acid a cikin gida ya ragu, kuma farashin ya tashi sosai.
Karfin farashin Formic acid a fuskar ƙarancin buƙatarsa ya samo asali ne daga matsalolin samar da kayayyaki a China da kuma ƙasashen waje, wanda tushensa shine matsalar iskar gas a ƙasashen waje, kuma mafi mahimmanci, raguwar samar da kayayyaki a China.
Bugu da ƙari, ƙwarewar gasa ta samfuran da ke ƙarƙashin masana'antar sinadarai na kwal shi ma kyakkyawan fata ne. Kayayyakin sinadarai na kwal galibi sune methanol da ammonia na roba, waɗanda za a iya ƙara faɗaɗa su zuwa acetic acid, ethylene glycol, olefin da urea.
A bisa kididdiga, fa'idar farashin aikin samar da kwal na methanol ya wuce CNY/MT 3000; Fa'idar farashin aikin samar da kwal na urea shine kusan CNY/MT 1700; Fa'idar farashin aikin samar da kwal na acetic acid shine kusan CNY/MT 1800; Rashin kyawun farashin ethylene glycol da olefin a samar da kwal an kawar da shi gaba ɗaya.
Lokacin Saƙo: Oktoba-19-2022