Shekarar 2023 ta kusato. Tare da inganta manufofin rigakafi da shawo kan annoba, ƙarfin matakan daidaita ci gaba da kuma ƙarancin tasirin tushe, cibiyoyin bincike da dama sun yi hasashen cewa ci gaban GDP na shekara-shekara na China zai sake farfadowa sosai a wannan shekarar. A matsayinta na masana'antar ginshiƙi ta tattalin arzikin ƙasa, masana'antar sinadarai tana haɗa albarkatu daban-daban da makamashi daga sama, yayin da ɓangaren ƙasa ke da alaƙa kai tsaye da buƙatun yau da kullun na mutane. A shekarar 2023, masana'antar sinadarai ya kamata ta yi la'akari da canjin zagayowar kaya da kuma sauya hanya, don haka waɗanne yankuna ne za su zama mafi ƙarfi a cikin jari? Domin gamsar da masu karatu, za a tsara dabarun saka hannun jari na mai da sinadarai na kamfanonin tsaro kamar Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities da China Merchants Securities gaba ɗaya.
Taron Aikin Tattalin Arziki na Tsakiya da aka yi kwanan nan ya bayyana a sarari cewa ya kamata a yi ƙoƙari don faɗaɗa buƙatun cikin gida, kuma gyaran da aka yi kwanan nan na manufofin shawo kan annoba ya hanzarta farfaɗowar kasuwar masu amfani da kayayyaki ta cikin gida. A ƙarƙashin cikakken tsammanin, wasu dillalai sun yi imanin cewa: A cikin 2023, ana sa ran buƙatar wasu kayayyakin sinadarai za ta dawo da ci gaba, kuma sabon farantin kayan sinadarai da ke cikin haɓaka sabbin makamashi, ajiyar makamashi, semiconductor da masana'antar soja za su ci gaba da kasancewa babban kasuwanci. Daga cikinsu, kayan semiconductor, kayan photovoltaic, kayan lithium da sauransu sun cancanci kulawar masu zuba jari.
Kayan Semiconductor: yi amfani da damar maye gurbin gida don hanzarta ci gaba
A shekarar 2022, saboda yanayin tattalin arzikin duniya da sauyin zagayowar ci gaban masana'antu da kuma tasirin annobar da ta sake haifarwa, dukkan masana'antar lantarki ta fuskanci matsin lamba kan aiki. Amma gabaɗaya, masana'antar semiconductor ta China har yanzu tana ci gaba da bunƙasa.
Rahoton Bincike na Guoxin Securities ya nuna cewa yawan kayan semiconductor da ake samu a ƙasarmu ya kai kusan kashi 10% kawai a shekarar 2021, kuma ya kasance abin takaici dangane da wadatar rukuni da gasa. Duk da haka, a cikin dogon lokaci, masana'antar da'ira ta ƙasata za ta fara aikin kirkire-kirkire mai zaman kanta. Ana sa ran kayan gida da kayan aiki za su iya samun ƙarin albarkatu da damammaki, kuma ana sa ran za a rage tsarin madadin gida.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, buƙatar aikace-aikacen semiconductor da kasuwannin masu amfani sun ƙaru akai-akai. A cikin 2021, tallace-tallace na semiconductor na duniya ya kai dala biliyan 555.9, karuwar dala biliyan 45.5 a cikin 2020; ana sa ran zai ci gaba da bunƙasa a cikin 2022, kuma tallace-tallace na semiconductor zai kai dala biliyan 601.4. Akwai nau'ikan kayan semiconductor da yawa, kuma manyan uku a kasuwa sune wafers na silicon, gas, da ƙera haske. Bugu da ƙari, kason kasuwa na polishing fluid da polishing pads, lithography manne reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, da sputtering maƙasudai shine 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, da 3.0%, bi da bi.
Rahoton Binciken Tsaro na Guangfa ya yi imanin cewa yanke fannin kayan semiconductor (sinadaran lantarki) ta hanyar bincike da haɓakawa ko haɗakarwa da sayewa wani tsari ne da ya fi shahara ga kamfanonin sinadarai don neman sauyi a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Duk da cewa kamfanonin canji masu nasara za su iya samun ƙimar kasuwa mafi girma yayin da suke samun masana'antu mafi sauri, mun kawo ci gaba mai girma biyu. A cikin ci gaban masana'antar semiconductor cikin sauri, kamfanonin kayan da suka shafi sun kuma samar da kyakkyawar dama don maye gurbin cikin gida. Wasu kamfanoni masu ƙarfi da ƙarfi da matakan abokan ciniki masu nasara, da kuma nasarar canjin samfura da haɓakawa ana sa ran za su raba ci gaban masana'antar semiconductor cikin sauri.
Binciken Ping An Securities ya ruwaito cewa akwai abubuwa da yawa kamar "cycle silicon" da kuma macroeconomic cycles, kuma ana sa ran masana'antar semiconductor za ta yi kasa a gwiwa a shekarar 2023.
Rahoton Binciken Tsaron Yammacin Duniya ya yi imanin cewa karuwar ikon sarrafa fitar da kayayyaki daga Amurka zai hanzarta madadin kayan semiconductor na cikin gida. Suna da kyakkyawan fata game da kayan semiconductor, kayan haɗin gwiwa da kayan aiki masu alaƙa, da kasuwar silicon carbide.
Kayan aikin ɗaukar hoto: Kasuwar POE ta matakin biliyan 10 tana jiran ta shiga
A shekarar 2022, a ƙarƙashin tallata manufofin ƙasata, adadin sabbin kayan aiki a masana'antar hasken wutar lantarki ta cikin gida ya ƙaru sosai, kuma buƙatar fim ɗin manne na hasken wutar lantarki ta ƙaru sosai.
An raba kayan aikin fim ɗin manne na photovoltaic zuwa nau'i biyu: al'ummar ethylene-ethyl acetate (EVA) da polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, a matsayin kayan aikin da ake amfani da su a yanzu na fim ɗin manne na photovoltaic, tana da babban matakin dogaro da shigo da kaya, kuma tana da babban sarari don wurin zama a nan gaba. A lokaci guda, ana sa ran buƙatar EVA a fannin fim ɗin manne na photovoltaic a ƙasata a 2025 zai iya kaiwa har zuwa kashi 45.05%.
Ana iya amfani da wani babban kayan POE ga na'urorin photovoltaic, motoci, kebul, kumfa, kayan aikin gida da sauran fannoni. A halin yanzu, fim ɗin manne na photovoltaic ya zama babban yanki na aikace-aikacen POE. A cewar "Taswirar Hanyar Ci gaban Masana'antu ta Photovoltaic ta China (Bugu na 2021)", kaso na kasuwa na fim ɗin manne na POE na gida da fim ɗin manne na polyethylene (EPE) a cikin 2021 ya karu zuwa 23.1%. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, tare da ci gaba da ƙaruwar fitowar abubuwan photovoltaic a ƙasata da kuma ci gaba da shigar POE a cikin fim ɗin manne na photovoltaic, buƙatar POE na gida ya ƙaru a hankali.
Duk da haka, saboda tsarin samar da POE yana da manyan shingaye, a halin yanzu, kamfanonin cikin gida ba su da ƙarfin POE, kuma duk wani amfani da POE a ƙasata ya dogara ne akan shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje. Tun daga shekarar 2017, kamfanonin cikin gida sun ci gaba da haɓaka samfuran POE. Ana sa ran Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Tauraron Dan Adam Chemistry da sauran kamfanoni masu zaman kansu za su cimma nasarar maye gurbin POE a cikin gida a nan gaba.
Kayan batirin lithium: jigilar manyan kayayyaki guda huɗu an ƙara ƙaruwa
A shekarar 2022, kasuwar ajiyar sabbin motocin makamashi da kuma batirin lithium ta kasar Sin ta ci gaba da kasancewa mai girma, wanda hakan ya sa jigilar kayayyakin batirin lithium ya karu sosai. A cewar bayanan kungiyar motocin kasar Sin, daga watan Janairu zuwa Nuwamba na shekarar 2022, samarwa da sayar da sabbin motocin makamashi na cikin gida ya kai miliyan 6.253 da miliyan 6.067, bi da bi, matsakaicin karuwar shekara-shekara, kuma hannun jarin kasuwa ya kai kashi 25%.
Ana sa ran Cibiyar Bincike ta Masana'antu Mai Fasaha (GGII) za ta sayar da sama da motocin lantarki miliyan 6.7 da aka sayar a cikin gida a shekarar 2022; ana sa ran kasuwar sabbin motocin lantarki ta China za ta zarce miliyan 9 a shekarar 2023. A shekarar 2022, ana sa ran karuwar jigilar batirin lithium na kasar Sin zai zarce kashi 100%, ana sa ran karuwar jigilar batirin lantarki zai zarce kashi 110%, kuma karuwar jigilar batirin lithium na adana makamashi ya zarce kashi 150%. Babban ci gaban jigilar batirin lithium ya haifar da manyan kayayyaki guda hudu na kayayyakin lithium masu kyau, marasa kyau, diaphragm, electrolyte, da sauran kayayyakin batirin lithium kamar lithium hexfluorophosphate da foil na jan karfe zuwa matakai daban-daban.
Bayanai sun nuna cewa a rabin farko na shekarar 2022, kayayyakin lantarki na Lithium Electric na kasar Sin sun fitar da tan 770,000, karuwar kashi 62% a shekara; jigilar kayan lantarki masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin electrode masu dauke da sinadarin ton 540,000, karuwar kashi 68% a shekara; kashi 55%; jigilar kayan lantarki masu dauke da sinadarin electrolyte sun kai tan 330,000, karuwar kashi 63% a shekara. Gaba daya, a shekarar 2022, jimillar jigilar manyan batirin lithium guda hudu a kasar Sin ta ci gaba da bunkasa.
GGII ta yi hasashen cewa kasuwar batirin lithium na cikin gida za ta wuce 1TWh a shekarar 2023. Daga cikinsu, ana sa ran jigilar batirin wutar lantarki zai wuce 800GWh, kuma jigilar batirin ajiyar makamashi zai wuce 180GWh, wanda zai sa jigilar manyan batirin lithium guda huɗu ta ƙara ƙaruwa.
Duk da cewa farashin ma'adinan lithium da gishirin lithium sun faɗi a watan Disamba na 2022. Duk da haka, a idanun dillalai, wannan galibi yana faruwa ne saboda tasirin lokacin hutu, kuma "ma'aunin canji" na farashin lithium bai isa ba.
Huaxi Securities ta yi imanin cewa sauyin farashin gishirin lithium shine canjin da aka saba gani a lokacin kololuwar masana'antar, ba "matsayin canji ba". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities kuma ta yi imanin cewa tare da ƙarin fitar da ƙarfin samar da kayan masarufi a shekarar 2023, yanayin ribar sarkar sarkar masana'antar batirin lithium zai ci gaba daga sama zuwa ƙasa. Zhejiang Business Securities ta yi imanin cewa ikirarin albarkatun lithium ya fi yadda ake buƙata a rabin na biyu na 2023.
Lokacin Saƙo: Janairu-10-2023