Kwanan nan, daga ɗanyen mai, makomar zuwa albarkatun ƙasa, har ma da jigilar kaya sama - wanda ya kasance abin hauka tsawon kusan shekaru uku, shi ma ya gaya wa 'yan kasuwa cewa mun yi ibada. Akwai labarai akai-akai cewa duniya ta fara shiga yaƙin farashi. Shin kasuwar sinadarai za ta yi kyau a wannan shekarar?
Ragewa da kashi 30%！Jigilar kaya ƙasa da matakin kafin barkewar cutar!
Ma'aunin Kaya na Kwantena na Shanghai (SCFI) ya faɗi sosai. Bayanai sun nuna cewa sabon ma'aunin ya faɗi da maki 11.73 zuwa 995.16, wanda a hukumance ya faɗi ƙasa da maki 1,000 kuma ya koma matakin kafin barkewar COVID-19 a 2019. Yawan jigilar kaya na layin jiragen ruwa na Yammacin Amurka da layin jiragen ruwa na Turai ya yi ƙasa da farashin, kuma layin jiragen ruwa na gabashin Amurka shi ma yana fama da matsalar farashin, inda ya faɗi tsakanin kashi 1% zuwa 13%!
Daga wahalar samun akwati a shekarar 2021 zuwa yawan akwatunan da babu komai a cikinsu, jigilar jiragen ruwa da yawa a gida da waje ya ragu a hankali, yana fuskantar matsin lamba na "tarin kwantena marasa komai".
Yanayin kowace tashar jiragen ruwa:
Tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Kudancin China kamar su Tashar Jiragen Ruwa ta Nansha, Tashar Jiragen Ruwa ta Shenzhen Yantian da Tashar Jiragen Ruwa ta Shenzhen Shekou duk suna fuskantar matsin lamba na tarin kwantena marasa komai. Daga cikinsu, Tashar Jiragen Ruwa ta Yantian tana da layuka 6-7 na tarin kwantena marasa komai, wanda ke gab da karya mafi yawan adadin kwantena marasa komai da aka tara a tashar cikin shekaru 29.
Tashar jiragen ruwa ta Shanghai, tashar jiragen ruwa ta Ningbo Zhoushan ita ma tana cikin mawuyacin hali na tarin kwantena marasa komai.
Tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Los Angeles, New York da Houston duk suna da yawan kwantena marasa komai, kuma tashoshin jiragen ruwa na New York da Houston suna ƙara yawan wuraren da za a sanya kwantena marasa komai.
Jirgin ruwa na 2022 ya gaza da kwantenan TEU miliyan 7, yayin da buƙatar ta ragu tun daga watan Oktoba na 2022, kuma an rage akwatin iska. A halin yanzu, an kiyasta cewa sama da kwantenan TEU miliyan 6 suna da kwantenan da suka wuce kima. Saboda babu oda, manyan motoci sun tsaya a tashar jiragen ruwa ta cikin gida, kuma kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki na sama da na ƙasa suma sun ce aikin ya ragu da kashi 20% a shekara! A watan Janairu na 2023, kamfanin tattara kaya ya rage ƙarfin layin Asiya da Turai da kashi 27%. Daga cikin jimillar tafiye-tafiye 690 da aka tsara na manyan hanyoyin ciniki na manyan hanyoyin ciniki a faɗin Tekun Pacific, Tekun Atlantika da Asiya, da Tekun Bahar Rum, a cikin mako na 7 (13 ga Fabrairu (13 ga Fabrairu Daga 19), an soke tafiye-tafiye 82 daga makonni 5 (13 ga Maris zuwa 19), kuma adadin sokewa ya kai kashi 12%.
Bugu da ƙari, bisa ga bayanai daga Babban Hukumar Kwastam: A watan Nuwamba na 2022, fitar da kayayyaki zuwa Amurka ya ragu da kashi 25.4%. Bayan wannan mummunan raguwar shine cewa odar kera kayayyaki daga Amurka ta ragu da kashi 40%! Odar Amurka ta dawo kuma canja wurin odar wasu ƙasashe, yawan aiki yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
Kaka yuan 150,000! Ana buƙatar sanyaya, kayan da aka yi amfani da su duk suna zamewa!
▶ Lithium carbonate:
Kasuwar lithium carbonate a bara ta yi tsada sosai, har ma farashin ya tashi zuwa yuan 600,000/ton. Yanzu kuma ya fara "ƙasa". Tun daga watan Disamba da ya gabata, farashin lithium carbonate ya fara faɗuwa gaba ɗaya. Ya zuwa yanzu ya faɗi daga yuan 582000/ton zuwa yuan 429700/ton kusa, ƙasa da yuan 152000, ƙasa da kashi 26%.
Farashin gaurayen gida na Lithium carbonate 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Daraja: Matsayin masana'antu
Wasu daga cikin masu sharhi sun ce bayan dawowar kwastomomi masu tasowa, sha'awar da ke tattare da kayayyaki ba ta yi yawa ba, yawan oda bai inganta ba, wanda hakan ya sa 'yan kasuwa masu matsakaicin farashi don cire kuɗi zai iya rage farashin kaya kawai, kuma kasuwar lithium carbonate ta ragu akai-akai, kwastomomi na yanzu da ke tasowa galibi za su cinye kaya.
▶ Kwamfuta:
Farashin gauraye na PC na cikin gida 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Mafi kyawun maki, kashi 99.9% na abun ciki
Tun bayan bikin bazara, ginin masana'antar PC ta cikin gida da samar da kayayyaki yana ƙaruwa, amma tun daga watan Fabrairu, kasuwar PC tana faɗuwa, a makon da ya gabata farashin masana'antar PC ta cikin gida shi ma an rage shi, daga yuan 300 zuwa 400, buƙatar da ke ƙasa ba za ta iya ci gaba ba, yanayin kasuwa ya yi muni shine babban dalilin
▶N-Butanol:
Farashin samar da N-butanol na Shandong 2022-11-22-2023-02-20 kayayyaki masu kyau
Faduwar kasuwar N-butanol ta fara bayyana tun daga ƙarshen watan Janairu, farashinta tun daga ƙarshen Disamba ya faɗi yuan 1000/ton, babban dalilin shine buƙatar da ke ƙasa ba ta isa ba, masana'antun suna da yawan kaya, matsin lamba na tallace-tallace a ƙarƙashin haɓaka farashi. Duk da haka, Guanghua Jun ya yi imanin cewa n-butanol yana ci gaba da samar da riba mai yawa, masu amfani da ke ƙasa za su rama oda a kan ciniki, idan yarjejeniyar ta fi kyau, har yanzu ana sa ran farashin zai zama gyara.
Rage sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki
Fitar da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje na fuskantar ƙalubale
Masana'antar yadi mai tasowa ma tana fama da wahala. Fitar da yadi da tufafi daga China ta karu da kashi 2.6% a dala a shekarar 2022, amma wannan ya faru ne saboda karuwar da aka samu a rabin farko na shekarar, inda aka samu mafi yawan oda kafin bikin bazara na shekarar 2022. Fitar da kaya daga kasar ta fadi a rabin na biyu na shekarar saboda rashin oda, kuma a kwata na hudu musamman an samu raguwar lambobi biyu a duk watanni uku.
Idan aka shiga shekarar 2023, lamarin ya kai rabin zango. Abin da ake so shi ne a daidaita manufofin rigakafin annoba, 'yantar da kasuwar cikin gida, goyon bayan gwamnatin kananan hukumomi, da kuma kamfanonin yadi da tufafi suna da ƙarin damammaki. Abin da ke damuwa shi ne cewa yanayin duniya yana da sarkakiya kuma buƙatar amfani da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje har yanzu yana da jinkiri. Ana sa ran cewa umarnin cinikayya daga ƙasashen waje ba zai inganta ba.
Bukatar kasuwar duniya a shekarar 2023 ta ci gaba da raguwa kuma ta yi mummunan tasiri ga fitar da kayayyaki daga ƙasata. A cewar hasashen Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF), ƙimar karuwar GDP na Amurka (GDP a China) a shekarar 2023 zai kasance 1.4% kawai (2.0% a shekarar 2022), kuma ƙimar karuwar GDP na yankin Yuro zai kasance 0.7% kawai (3.5% a shekarar 2022.5%), Kuma waɗannan yankuna biyu su ne manyan kasuwannin fitar da kayayyaki ga kayayyakinmu na yadi da tufafi.
Fan Lei, babban mai sharhi kan harkokin kasuwanci na Tarayyar Macro, ya ce karuwar rashin kwanciyar hankali a fannin muhalli na waje yana karuwa, kuma Amurka har yanzu tana tallata hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki ga Sinicization. Wannan kuma kalubale ne da ake fuskanta wajen fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje a wannan shekarar. A watan Nuwamba na 2022, shigo da kayayyaki daga Amurka zuwa China ya ragu kusan rabin shekara, raguwar kashi 47%, kuma yawan shigo da kayayyaki ya ragu da kashi 38% a shekara. Daga watan Janairu zuwa Nuwamba na 2022, China ta yi kiyasin kaso na kasuwar shigo da kayayyaki daga Amurka daga kashi 24.1% a shekara da ta gabata zuwa kashi 22%.
Guosheng Securities ta fitar da wani rahoto na bincike da ya nuna cewa kayayyakin masana'antar tufafi ta Turai da Amurka na yanzu suna kan babban mataki, kuma yanayin mai alamar yana da tsauri. A cewar bayanai daga Ofishin Kididdiga na Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci ta Amurka, dillalan tufafi na Amurka da kayan sayarwa sun ci gaba da karuwa a kwata na uku na 2021. A watan Satumba na 2022, kayan da aka sayar da su / dillalan kayayyaki sun karu da kashi 68.3% / 24.1% a shekara-shekara, wanda ya wuce gona da iri a daidai wannan lokacin kafin annobar.
Inganta Yaƙin Ciniki na Duniya
Shin China da Amurka suna "kama umarni" a buɗe?
Ƙarfin aiki ya ragu kuma farashi ya ragu sosai, kuma wasu kamfanonin cikin gida sun riga sun fara hutu na kusan rabin shekara. Ana iya ganin cewa yanayin ƙarancin buƙata da raunin kasuwanni a bayyane yake. Shigar da yaƙi, ƙarancin albarkatu, da haɓaka kasuwancin duniya, ƙasashe suna kama kasuwa bayan annobar don haɓaka tattalin arzikin ƙasar.
Daga cikinsu, Amurka ta kuma ƙara yawan jarin da take zubawa a Turai yayin da take hanzarta sake gina masana'antar masana'antu ta ƙasar. A cewar bayanai masu dacewa, jarin da Amurka ta zuba a Amurka a rabin farko na 2022 ya kai dala biliyan 73.974, yayin da jarin ƙasata a Amurka ya kai dala miliyan 148 kacal. Waɗannan bayanai sun nuna cewa Amurka tana son gina sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta Turai da Amurka, wanda hakan kuma ya nuna cewa sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya tana canzawa, kuma cinikin China da Amurka na iya haifar da takaddama mai "tsanani".
A nan gaba, har yanzu akwai manyan sauye-sauye a masana'antar sinadarai. Wasu mutane a masana'antar sun ce buƙatun waje sun yi tasiri ga wadatar kayayyaki na cikin gida. Rayuwar kamfanonin cikin gida za ta fuskanci gwajin rayuwa mai tsanani na farko bayan annobar.
Lokacin Saƙo: Maris-01-2023