Masana'antar sinadarai na fuskantar hauhawar farashi mai "ta tarihi" a shekarar 2025, wanda hakan ya samo asali ne daga sake fasalin yanayin samar da kayayyaki da kuma sake rarraba darajar kayayyaki a fadin sarkar samar da kayayyaki. A ƙasa akwai nazarin abubuwan da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin, dabarun da ke tattare da bambancin riba, hanyoyin sake fasalin masana'antu, da kuma damar saka hannun jari.
I. Masu Tsaftace Farashi Masu Zurfi
1. Sauye-sauyen Juyin Juya Hali a Kayan Dashen Kaya
- Rashin daidaito tsakanin wadatar mai da buƙatarsa: Rage yawan samar da mai na OPEC+ tare da ƙarancin ci gaba daga masu samar da man da ba na OPEC ba ya sa man fetur na Brent ya wuce dala $100 a kowace ganga.
- Bukatar fashewar sabbin kayan makamashi: Farashin lithium carbonate (matakin masana'antu don batirin LFP) ya karu da kashi 120% YoY, yayin da sinadarin electrolyte na DMC ya karya alamar ¥10,000/ton.
- Kudaden Carbon da aka bayyana dalla-dalla: Harajin Carbon na CBAM na EU yanzu ya ƙunshi sinadarai na asali kamar ammonia da methanol na roba.
2. Tsarin Samar da Kaya - Matse Gefen
- Sauya ƙarfin lantarki a Turai: BASF da sauran manyan kamfanoni sun rufe kashi 30% na ƙarfin ammonia na roba na Jamus, wanda hakan ya mayar da samar da shi zuwa Tekun Tekun Amurka.
- Gyaran bangaren samar da kayayyaki na kasar Sin 2.0: Bukatun inganta muhalli da fasaha a masana'antar rini da titanium dioxide sun hanzarta ficewar kananan masana'antu zuwa matsakaici.
- Matsalolin da suka shafi harkokin sufuri a duniya: Matsalar Tekun Bahar Maliya ta haifar da karuwar kashi 300% a farashin jigilar kaya a Asiya da Turai, wanda hakan ya kara fadada farashin kayayyakin da suka shafi sufuri kamar TDI.
3. Kudin da aka biya daga Canjin Fasaha
- Tallace-tallacen kayan da aka yi amfani da su a fannin halittu: Farashin PLA ya kai kashi 40% na ƙimar kuɗi fiye da na gargajiya na PE, tare da Apple da Tesla suna cikin kwangiloli na dogon lokaci.
- Masana'antar sinadarai masu amfani da semiconductor: Farashin sinadarin hydrofluoric acid mai tsabta sosai ya wuce dala $50,000/ton, tare da ƙimar farashi 15% fiye da madadin Japan/Koriya ta Kudu.
II. Taswirar Bambancin Riba
| Sashe | Canjin ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Faɗaɗa Yaɗuwar Farashi | Maɓallan Direbobi |
| Sabbin Kayan Makamashi | +8.2%→ 21.5% | Kashi 35-50% | Nasarorin batirin da aka samu a fannin ƙarfin lantarki |
| Sinadaran Masu Yawa | -3.5% → 6.8% | Kashi 10-15% | Rashin kyawun farashin hanyar da aka yi da kwal |
| Sinadaran Musamman | +5.1%→ 18.3% | Kashi 25-40% | Bukatar kayan mota masu sauƙi |
| Sinadaran Noma | +2.3% → 12.7% | Kashi 18-22% | Karɓar amfanin gona na GMO + Farin da ke Kudancin Amurka |
III. Hijira Mai Daraja A Cikin Sarkar Samar da Kayayyaki
1. Masu riƙe da albarkatun ƙasa (misali, masu samar da phosphate da lithium) sun mamaye ƙarfin farashi, inda kamfanoni kamar Yuntianhua suka sami riba sama da kashi 50% a cikin kwata ɗaya.
2. Sassan Babban Shafi na Tsakiya:
- Fluoropolymers: Kudin sarrafa kayan raba PVDF ya kai ¥80,000/tan.
- Sinadaran da ke da tsarki sosai: Bukatun tsarkin isopropanol na matakin semiconductor ya tashi daga kashi 99.99% zuwa kashi 99.9999%.
3. Masu Ba da Tallafin Keɓancewa a Ƙasa: Kamfanoni kamar Covestro sun gabatar da samfuran "biya don aiki", wanda ya ƙara riƙe abokan ciniki da kashi 30%.
IV. 2025 Muhimman Abubuwan Ci Gaba
1. Tagogi Masu Sauya Fasaha:
- Fa'idar farashin Ethane cracking ta ragu, inda ROI na aikin PDH ya faɗi ƙasa da kashi 5%.
- Farashin samar da BDO mai tushen bio ya ragu da kashi 25% idan aka kwatanta da hanyoyin man fetur.
2. Sake daidaita daidaiton yanki:
- Cibiyar sinadarai ta sulfur ta Gabas ta Tsakiya: Kamfanin SABIC na Saudiyya ya gina wata masana'antar sinadarin sulfur mai rahusa tan miliyan 2/shekara.
- Matsakaitan marufi na kudu maso gabashin Asiya: Nippon Paint Vietnam yana aiki da ƙarfin amfani da kashi 120%.
3. Sake Kimanta ESG:
- Ayyukan ammonia masu tushen hydrogen masu kore suna karɓar kuɗin kimantawa sau 3.
- Tarayyar Turai ta haramta wa kayayyakin da ke dauke da PFAS sama da kashi 60% na CAGR don madadin.
V. Tsarin Shawarar Zuba Jari
Muhimmancin Rarraba Dabaru:
- Kayayyakin kariya masu ƙarfi: ƙwayayen zuma na Aramid, abubuwan da suka riga suka zama silicon carbide.
- Masu kawo cikas ga tsari: Haɗa adiponitrile mai tushen plasma, juyawar CO₂-zuwa-DMC.
- Zakarun da aka ɓoye: Masu ɗaukar hoto masu hana ɗaukar hoto, masu rufewa a matakin sararin samaniya.
Faɗakarwa game da Hadari:
- Amurka ta sanya haraji na kashi 15% kan kayayyakin da aka yi amfani da su a kasar Sin (wanda ya fara aiki a kwata na uku na shekarar 2025).
- Nasarar batirin sodium-ion na iya rage buƙatar kayan lithium.
Masana'antar tana fuskantar gagarumin sauyi a sarkar darajarta tun daga shekarar 2008. Kamfanoni masu fasahar zamani da kuma damar haɗa kai a tsaye, da kuma manyan 'yan wasa da ke da ƙarancin lasisin samarwa, su ne manyan abubuwan da suka fi mayar da hankali a kai. A tsakiyar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kamfanonin da ke ci gaba da sarrafa kayayyaki cikin ƙasa da kwanaki 30 za su nuna ƙarfin juriyar riba.
Lokacin Saƙo: Mayu-30-2025