Masana'antar sinadarai suna fuskantar hauhawar farashin "tarihi" a cikin 2025, ta hanyar sake fasalin yanayin buƙatun wadata da sake rarraba ƙima a cikin sarkar samarwa. A ƙasa akwai nazarin direbobin da ke bayan haɓakar farashin, dabarun da ke bayan rarrabuwar riba, hanyoyin sake fasalin masana'antu, da damar saka hannun jari.
I. Direbobin Zaɓuɓɓuka Masu Zurfi na Ƙarfafa Farashin
1. Canje-canjen Juyin Juya Halin Kayan Kayan Kayan Abinci
- Rashin daidaituwar danyen mai-bukatar rashin daidaito: OPEC+ tare da raguwar hakowa tare da ƙarancin haɓaka daga masu samar da OPEC ba ya sa Brent ya haura dala 100 a kowace ganga.
- Bukatar fashewar sabbin kayan makamashi: Lithium carbonate (majin masana'antu don batir LFP) farashin ya haura 120% YoY, yayin da sauran ƙarfi na DMC electrolyte ya karya ta ¥10,000/ton alamar.
- Bayyanar farashin carbon: Tariff ɗin carbon na CBAM na EU yanzu ya rufe sinadarai na yau da kullun kamar ammonia na roba da methanol.
2. Tsantsar Ƙarfafawa-Gina
- Ƙaurawar ƙarfin Turai: BASF da sauran ƙattai sun rufe 30% na ƙarfin ammonia na roba na Jamus, suna canza samarwa zuwa Tekun Fasha na Amurka.
- Sake fasalin samar da kayayyaki na kasar Sin 2.0: Bukatun inganta muhalli da fasaha a masana'antun rini da titanium dioxide sun kara saurin fitowar masu kera kanana zuwa matsakaici.
- Matsalolin dabaru na geopolitical: Rikicin Bahar Maliya ya haifar da hauhawar 300% a cikin farashin jigilar kayayyaki na Asiya-Turai, faɗaɗa farashi don samfuran jigilar kayayyaki kamar TDI.
3. Kudin wucewa-Ta hanyar Canjin Fasaha
- Kasuwancin kayan tushen halittu: Farashin PLA yana ba da umarnin ƙimar 40% akan PE na gargajiya, tare da kulle Apple da Tesla a cikin kwangiloli na dogon lokaci.
- Matsakaicin sinadarai na semiconductor: Tsaftataccen lantarki-tsaftataccen darajar hydrofluoric acid ya wuce $50,000/ton, tare da ƙimar 15% akan madadin Jafananci/Koriya ta Kudu.
II. Taswirar Banbancin Riba
| Bangare | Canjin ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Fadada Faɗin Farashi | Mabuɗan Direbobi |
| Sabbin Kayayyakin Makamashi | +8.2pc → 21.5% | 35-50% | Nasarar baturi mai ƙarfi |
| Yawan Sinadaran | -3.5pc → 6.8% | 10-15% | Lalacewar hanya ta tushen kwal |
| Masanan Kimiyya na Musamman | +5.1pc→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Bukatar kayan mota masu nauyi |
| Agro-chemicals | +2.3pc → 12.7% | 18-22% | Tallafin amfanin gona na GMO + fari na Kudancin Amurka |
III. Ƙirar Ƙirar Ƙirar Ƙirar Ƙarfafawa
1. Masu rike da albarkatu na sama (misali, phosphate & masu samar da lithium) sun mamaye ikon farashi, tare da kamfanoni kamar Yuntianhua suna samun> 50% babban riba a cikin kwata guda.
2. Tsakanin Maɗaukakin Kaya:
- Fluoropolymers: Kudin sarrafa kayan raba kayan aikin PVDF sun kai ¥ 80,000/ton.
- Mafi girman-tsarki-tsaftace sunadarai: Semiconductor-sa isopropanol tsarki bukatun ya tashi daga 99.99% zuwa 99.9999%.
3. Masu Ba da Haɓakawa na ƙasa: Kamfanoni kamar Covestro sun gabatar da samfuran "biyan aiki", suna haɓaka riƙe abokin ciniki da 30%.
IV. 2025 Mabuɗin Ci gaba
1. Windows Canjin Fasaha:
- Fa'idar farashin Ethane ya ragu, tare da aikin PDH ROI ya faɗi ƙasa da 5%.
- Farashin samar da BDO na tushen halittu ya ragu 25% vs. hanyoyin man fetur.
2. Sake daidaita yanki:
- Cibiyar sinadarin sulfur na Gabas ta Tsakiya: Kamfanin SABIC na Saudiyya ya gina shukar sulfuric acid mai rahusa mai nauyin ton 2m/shekara.
- Matsakaicin suturar suturar Asiya ta Kudu maso Gabas: Nippon Paint Vietnam yana aiki akan amfani da ƙarfin 120%.
3. Ƙimar ESG:
- Ayyukan ammonia na tushen hydrogen suna karɓar ƙimar ƙimar ƙimar 3x.
- EU ta haramtawa PFAS-dauke da samfuran tuƙi> 60% CAGR don madadin.
V. Matrix Decision Decision Matrix
Mahimman Rarraba Dabaru:
- Babban kayan katanga: Aramid cores saƙar zuma, siliki carbide precursors.
- Masu rushewar tsari: Tsarin adiponitrile na tushen Plasma, canjin CO₂-zuwa-DMC.
- Zakarun da aka ɓoye: Masu ɗaukar hoto masu ɗaukar hoto, masu ɗaukar sararin samaniya.
Faɗakarwar Hadarin:
- Amurka ta sanya harajin kashi 15% kan kayan da ake amfani da su na halittu na kasar Sin (mai tasiri Q3 2025).
- Nasarar batirin sodium-ion na iya rushe buƙatar kayan lithium.
Masana'antar tana fuskantar mafi mahimmancin tsarin tsarin sarkar ƙima tun daga 2008. Kamfanoni masu bambance-bambancen fasaha da damar haɗin kai tsaye, da kuma 'yan wasan da ke riƙe da ƙarancin lasisin samarwa, sune mahimman abubuwan da aka fi mayar da hankali. A cikin haɓakar haɓakar farashin, kamfanonin da ke riƙe da jujjuyawar kayayyaki a ƙarƙashin kwanaki 30 za su nuna ƙarfin juriyar riba.
Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-30-2025