Duk da cewa rabin shekarar 2022, sinadaran makamashi da sauran kayayyaki sun shiga matakin gyara, amma manazarta Goldman Sachs a cikin sabon rahoton sun jaddada cewa muhimman abubuwan da ke tantance karuwar sinadarai na makamashi da sauran kayayyaki ba su canza ba, za su kawo riba mai kyau a shekara mai zuwa.
A ranar Talata, Jeff Currie, darektan Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, da Samantha Dart, darektan binciken iskar gas, suna sa ran ma'aunin ma'aunin manyan kayayyaki kamar masana'antar sinadarai, Wannan yana nufin cewa S&P GSCI Jimlar dawowar Indices zai iya samun ƙarin kashi 43% a cikin 2023 bayan riba mai yawa da kashi 20% a wannan shekarar.
(S&P Kospi Jimlar Kayayyaki Fihirisa, tushe: Zuba Jari)
GOldman Sachs ya yi tsammanin cewa kasuwa a kwata na farko na 2023 na iya samun wasu matsaloli a cikin yanayin koma bayan tattalin arziki, amma samar da mai da iskar gas zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
Baya ga cibiyar bincike ta mai siyarwa, jari yana amfani da zinare da azurfa na gaske don nuna kyakkyawan fata na dogon lokaci game da kayayyaki. A cewar bayanan da Bridge Alternative ya saka hannun jari, manyan kwalejoji 15 da suka mai da hankali kan kasuwar kayayyaki a wannan shekarar, girman kadarorin da aka sarrafa daga kashi 50% zuwa dala biliyan 20.7.
Goldman Sachs ya kammala da cewa idan ba tare da isasshen jari don samar da wadataccen ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki ba, kayayyaki za su ci gaba da faɗawa cikin yanayi na ƙarancin lokaci na dogon lokaci, kuma farashin zai ci gaba da hauhawa da canzawa sosai.
Dangane da takamaiman manufofin da aka sa gaba, Goldman Sachs na sa ran danyen mai, wanda a halin yanzu yake kan dala $80 a kowace ganga, zai tashi zuwa dala $105 nan da karshen shekarar 2023; kuma farashin iskar gas na Asiya zai iya tashi daga dala $33/miliyan zuwa dala $53.
Nan gaba kaɗan, an ga alamun farfadowa a kasuwar da ta dace, kuma sinadarai sun ƙara hauhawa.
A ranar 16 ga Disamba, daga cikin sa ido kan kayayyaki 110 da ake yi wa Zhuochuang Information, kayayyaki 55 sun karu a wannan zagayen, wanda ya kai kashi 50.00%; kayayyaki 26 sun tsaya cak, sun kai kashi 23.64%; kayayyaki 29 sun fadi, wanda ya kai kashi 26.36%.
Daga mahangar takamaiman samfura, a bayyane yake cewa an dawo da PBT, polyester filament, da benhypenhydronic.
PBT
Kwanan nan, farashin kasuwar PBT ya tashi, kuma ribar ta sake farfadowa. Tun daga watan Disamba, masana'antar farko ta fara samun ƙarancin riba ga masana'antun da ke samar da kayayyaki masu inganci, kuma a cikin kayan aikin BDO, fargabar ɗaukar kaya ta ƙaru, wadatar PBT ta yi ƙasa, farashin ya ɗan tashi kaɗan, ribar masana'antar ta koma baya.
Jadawalin farashin resin pure PBT a Gabashin China
POY
Bayan "Golden Nine Silver Ten", buƙatar filament ɗin polyester ya ragu sosai. Masu kera sun ci gaba da samun riba, kuma abin da aka fi mayar da hankali a kai a cinikin ya ci gaba da raguwa. A ƙarshen Nuwamba, abin da aka fi mayar da hankali a kai a cinikin Poy150D shine yuan 6,700/ton. A watan Disamba, yayin da buƙatar tashar ke farfaɗowa a hankali, kuma babban samfurin filament ɗin polyester ya yi yawa a cikin kuɗin shiga, masana'antun suna siyarwa a farashi mai rahusa, kuma an ƙara rahoton ɗaya bayan ɗaya. Masu amfani da ke ƙasa sun damu cewa farashin sayayya a ƙarshen lokacin ya ƙaru. Yanayin kasuwar filament ɗin polyester ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Zuwa tsakiyar Disamba, farashin Poy150D shine yuan 7075/ton, ƙaruwar kashi 5.6% daga watan da ya gabata.
PA
Kasuwar benhynhydr ta cikin gida ta ƙare kusan watanni biyu, kuma kasuwar ta haifar da koma-baya sosai. Tun bayan shigowar wannan makon, wanda ya shafi koma-bayan kasuwar benhypenichydr, ribar masana'antar benhypenhydrate ta cikin gida ta inganta. Daga cikinsu, ribar da aka samu daga samar da samfurin benhypenhydrate maƙwabtaka ita ce yuan 132/ton, karuwar yuan 568/ton daga ranar 8 ga Disamba, kuma raguwar ta kai kashi 130.28%. Farashin kayan masarufi ya faɗi, amma kasuwar bonalide ta daidaita kuma ta farfado, kuma masana'antar ta canza daga asara. Ribar samfurin pyrine ita ce yuan 190/ton, karuwar yuan 70/ton daga ranar 8 ga Disamba, da kuma raguwar kashi 26.92%. Babban dalilin shine farashin masana'antar kayan masarufi ya farfado, yayin da farashin kasuwar benic anhydride ya tashi sosai, kuma asarar masana'antar ta ragu.
Tabbas, akwai wasu masu sharhi waɗanda yanzu suke ganin an raina tasirin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Ed Morse, shugaban binciken kayayyaki a Citigroup, ya ce a wannan makon cewa yiwuwar sauya alkiblar kasuwannin kayayyaki, sannan kuma yiwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya, zai iya zama barazana ga ajin kadarori.
Yau jajibirin wayewar gari, ana jiran buƙatu ta ƙare, a cewar Youliao. A shekarar 2013, annobar ta shafi buƙatar China, yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hankali ya danne buƙatun ƙasashen waje. Duk da cewa kasuwa na tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Fed zai ragu, amma tasirin da zai yi wa tattalin arzikin gaske zai bayyana a hankali, wanda zai haifar da raguwar buƙatu. Sassauta manufofin rigakafin annoba na China ya haifar da ƙarin kwarin gwiwa ga murmurewa, amma kololuwar kamuwa da cutar ta farko na iya haifar da cikas na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Murmurewa a China na iya farawa a kwata na biyu.
Lokacin Saƙo: Disamba-22-2022