Kodayake rabin na biyu na 2022, sinadarai na makamashi da sauran kayayyaki sun shiga lokacin gyara, amma manazarta Goldman Sachs a cikin sabon rahoton har yanzu sun jaddada cewa mahimman abubuwan da ke tabbatar da haɓakar sinadarai na makamashi da sauran kayayyaki ba su canza ba, har yanzu za su kawo kyakkyawan sakamako. shekara mai zuwa.
A ranar Talata, Jeff Currie, darektan Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, da Samantha Dart, darektan bincike na iskar gas, suna tsammanin ma'aunin ma'auni na manyan kayayyaki kamar masana'antar sinadarai, Wannan yana nufin S&P GSCI Total Return Index na iya samun ƙarin 43% a cikin 2023 akan baya na 20% da dawowar wannan shekara.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, tushen: Investing)
Gdattijo Sachs yana tsammanin cewa kasuwa a cikin kwata na farko na 2023 na iya samun raguwa a yanayin koma bayan tattalin arziki, amma wadatar mai da iskar gas za ta ci gaba da hauhawa.
Baya ga cibiyar bincike na mai siyarwa, babban jari kuma yana amfani da zinare na gaske da azurfa don bayyana kyakkyawan fata na dogon lokaci game da kayayyaki.Dangane da bayanan da Bridge Alternative ya kashe, manyan kwalejoji 15 da ke mai da hankali kan kasuwar kayayyaki a wannan shekara, girman kadarorin da aka sarrafa ta 50% zuwa dala biliyan 20.7.
Goldman Sachs ya kammala cewa ba tare da isasshen jari don samar da wadataccen damar samar da kayayyaki ba, kayayyaki za su ci gaba da faduwa cikin yanayin karancin lokaci mai tsawo, kuma farashin zai ci gaba da hauhawa da kuma canzawa.
Dangane da takamaiman manufa, Goldman Sachs yana tsammanin danyen mai, wanda a halin yanzu yake shawagi a kusan dala 80 kowace ganga, zai haura zuwa dala 105 a karshen shekarar 2023;kuma farashin ma'aunin iskar gas na Asiya kuma na iya tashi daga dala miliyan 33 zuwa $53.
A nan gaba kadan, an sami alamun farfadowa a cikin kasuwa mai iya aiki, kuma sunadarai sun kara karuwa.
A ranar 16 ga watan Disamba, daga cikin kayayyakin sa ido 110 na bayanan Zhuochuang, kayayyaki 55 sun karu a wannan zagayen, wanda ya kai kashi 50.00%;26 samfurori da aka riƙe a tsaye, suna lissafin 23.64%;29 samfurori sun fadi, suna lissafin 26.36%.
Daga hangen nesa na takamaiman samfuran, PBT, filament polyester, da benhypenhydronic a fili an dawo dasu.
PBT
Kwanan nan, farashin kasuwar PBT ya tashi, kuma riba ta sake dawowa.Tun Disamba, farkon masana'antu fara low gubar ga masana'antun na tabo kaya m, da kuma a cikin albarkatun kasa BDO ja sama da aiki, da m tsoro ya dauki kaya tunanin ya karu, PBT kasuwar tabo wadata m, farashin ya tashi dan kadan, masana'antu. riba ta juya.
Jadawalin rabe-raben da aka karɓa ta PBT pure resin a China
POY
Bayan “Golden Nine Azurfa Goma”, buƙatar filament polyester ya ragu sosai.Masu sana'a sun ci gaba da yin haɓakar riba, kuma mayar da hankali ga ma'amala ya ci gaba da raguwa.A karshen watan Nuwamba, an fi mayar da hankali kan cinikin Poy150D ya kai yuan 6,700/ton.A watan Disamba, yayin da bukatar tashar ta tashi sannu a hankali, kuma babban samfurin polyester filaments ya kasance mai girma a cikin tsabar kudi, masana'antun suna sayarwa a farashi mai sauƙi, kuma rahoton ya tashi daya bayan daya.Masu amfani da ƙasa sun damu cewa an ƙara farashin sayayya a cikin lokaci na gaba.Yanayin kasuwar filament polyester ya ci gaba da hauhawa.A tsakiyar Disamba, farashin Poy150D ya kasance yuan 7075 / ton, karuwa na 5.6% daga watan da ya gabata.
PA
Kasuwancin benhynhydr na cikin gida ya ƙare kusan watanni biyu, kuma kasuwar ta haifar da koma baya sosai.Tun shigar da wannan makon, sakamakon sake dawo da kasuwar benhypenichydr, ribar masana'antar benhypenhydrate ta cikin gida ta inganta.Daga cikin su, yawan ribar da aka samu na samar da samfurin benhypenhydrate da ke makwabtaka da ita ya kai yuan/ton 132, wanda ya karu da yuan/ton 568 daga ranar 8 ga Disamba, kuma raguwar ta kai kashi 130.28%.Farashin albarkatun kasa ya fadi, amma kasuwar bonalide ta daidaita kuma ta farfado, kuma masana'antar ta canza daga asara.Babban riba da samfurin pyrine ya samu shine yuan 190/ton, karuwar yuan 70/ton daga ranar 8 ga Disamba, da raguwar kashi 26.92%.Hakan ya faru ne saboda farashin masana'antar kayan masarufi ya sake tashi, yayin da farashin benic anhydride ya tashi sosai a kasuwa, kuma asarar da masana'antar ke samu ya ragu sosai.
Tabbas, akwai wasu manazarta da a yanzu suke ganin an raina tasirin koma bayan tattalin arziki.Ed Morse, shugaban bincike na kayayyaki a Citigroup, ya ce a wannan makon cewa yuwuwar sauyi kan alkiblar kasuwannin kayayyaki, tare da yuwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya, zai haifar da barazana ga kayan kadara.
Garin wayewar gari ne, ana jiran buƙatu a ƙasa, a cewar Youliao.A shekarar 2013, annobar cutar ta shafi bukatun kasar Sin, yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hankali ya hana bukatar kasashen ketare.Ko da yake kasuwa yana tsammanin saurin haɓakar ƙimar Fed zai ragu, amma tasirin tattalin arziki na gaske zai fito da hankali a hankali, wanda zai haifar da raguwar haɓakar buƙatu.Sake da manufar rigakafin cutar ta China ya haifar da kuzari ga murmurewa, amma kololuwar farko na kamuwa da cuta na iya haifar da cikas na gajeren lokaci.Farfadowa a China na iya farawa a cikin kwata na biyu.
Lokacin aikawa: Dec-22-2022