A shekarar 2023, kasuwar butadiene ta cikin gida ta fi girma sosai, farashin kasuwa ya karu da kashi 22.71%, ci gaban shekara-shekara na kashi 44.76%, ya cimma kyakkyawan farawa. Masu halartar kasuwar sun yi imanin cewa tsarin kasuwancin butadiene na 2023 zai ci gaba, kasuwa ta cancanci a jira, a lokaci guda kuma tazara tsakanin aiki na kasuwar butadiene ta cikin gida ko kuma zai ɗan fi 2022 girma, a matsayin babban aiki.
Babban canjin kasuwa
Manazarci Jin Lianchuang, Zhang Xiuping, ya ce masana'antar ta kasance cikin rashin tabbas game da kasuwar butadiene a watan Janairu saboda tasirin samar da Shenghong Refining da masana'antar sinadarai. Duk da haka, ana sa ran kula da masana'antar butadiene a Zhejiang Petrochemical da Zhenhai Refining da masana'antar sinadarai a watan Fabrairu da Maris ya ɗaga yanayin aiki na kasuwar a hankali. Bugu da ƙari, buƙatar masana'antar acrylonitrile - butadiene - styrene copolymer (ABS) ta Tianchen Qixiang da Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., LTD. yana ƙaruwa a hankali. Kasuwar tana bincike sosai.
Duk da cewa an shirya rufe sashin butadiene a Mataki na II na Zhejiang Petrochemical don gyara a tsakiyar watan Fabrairu, kuma ana sa ran za a gyara tashar Zhenhai Refining and Chemical a ƙarshen watan Fabrairu, an shirya fara aiki da Hainan Refining da Chemical Plant da kuma petrochina Guangdong Petrochemical plant a watan Fabrairu. A ƙarƙashin tasirin da aka samu, ana sa ran samar da butadiene zai kasance mai karko amma ba mai ƙarfi ba, kuma ana sa ran farashin kasuwa zai ci gaba da hauhawa.
Daga mahangar sakin ƙarfin bifienne a shekarar 2023, za a iya samun tan miliyan 1.04 na sabbin ƙarfin da aka fitar a duk shekara, amma ba za a iya kawar da jinkirin wasu shigarwa ba. A lokaci guda, yawancin sabbin masana'antun da ake tsammanin za a fara aiki a ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata an jinkirta su zuwa rabin farko na wannan shekarar. Baya ga Shenghong Refining da Chemical, ana kuma sa ran wasu masana'antun butadiene kamar Dongming Petrochemical za su fara aiki. A rabin farko na shekara, sakamakon fitowar sabbin ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki, wadatar butadiene za ta ragu a hankali, kasuwa ko kuma ta nuna babban yanayin buɗewa.
Ana sa ran za a samar da ƙananan adadin sabbin na'urorin butadiene a rabin na biyu na shekara, kuma ana sa ran za a samar da sabbin na'urori a ƙasa. Ƙarin buƙata zai fi ƙaruwar wadata, kuma yanayin wadatar kasuwa mai tsauri zai ci gaba.
Bugu da ƙari, tare da ingantawa da daidaita manufofin annobar da kuma ƙaruwar tsammanin farfaɗowar tattalin arziki, buƙatar ƙarshen tattalin arziki a cikin gida a rabin na biyu na shekara za a iya inganta idan aka kwatanta da rabin farko na shekara, kuma tallafin farashi a ɓangaren buƙata yana ƙaruwa idan aka kwatanta da rabin farko na shekara. Matsakaicin farashin butadiene a matsayin kayan masarufi ya fi na rabin farko na shekara.
Farashin kayan masarufi yana da wahalar faɗuwa
A matsayin kayan famfo, a matsayin kayan albarkatun butadiene, an tallafa masa da karuwar buƙata a shekarar 2022, kuma samar da man kwakwalwa na dutse ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa a duk shekara. A cewar bayanai daga Ofishin Kididdiga na Ƙasa, fitar da man kwakwalwa na dutse a ƙasata a shekarar 2022 ya kai tan miliyan 54.78, ƙaruwar kashi 10.51% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata; yawan man kwakwalwa na dutse da aka shigo da shi daga ƙasashen waje ya kai tan miliyan 9.26, kuma amfani da na'urar lura da man kwakwalwa na dutse ya kai tan miliyan 63.99 na amfani da tan miliyan 63.99. , ya karu da kashi 13.21% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata.
A shekarar 2023, tare da raguwar annobar a hankali, manufar ta yi kyau, tattalin arziki ya farfaɗo a hankali, ƙimar aiki a masana'antar mai za ta ƙaru, kuma buƙatar man fetur a sama za ta ƙaru. Ana sa ran wannan yanayin zai ci gaba har zuwa kwata na uku. Nan da kwata na huɗu, tashar mai ta shiga amfani da man fetur na gargajiya a lokacin hutu, kuma ginin ƙasa ya ragu. Bukatar man fetur da mai tana da haɗarin raguwa.
Gabaɗaya, lokacin da matatar mai ta shiga lokacin gyarawa na tsakiya a cikin kwata na biyu, wadatar man fetur ta ragu kuma ta taimaka wa kasuwar ta farfado. Duk da haka, saboda raguwar ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya da rashin isasshen buƙata, farfadowar ta takaita, kuma farashin na iya ci gaba da daidaitawa bayan farashin ya yi yawa. Kwata na uku shine kololuwar tafiye-tafiye na gargajiya. A wannan matakin, farashin ɗanyen mai ya koma daidai gwargwado. Ribar na'urar fashewa ta inganta, ayyukan kasuwa sun ƙaru, kuma farashin kayan masarufi ya yi laushi zuwa ƙasa. A kwata na huɗu, kasuwar man fetur za ta shiga amfani na gargajiya a lokacin hutu, buƙata ta ragu, kuma farashin man dutse zai sake faɗuwa.
Daga mahangar masana'antar tace mai, ana shirin fara aikin haƙa ramin Yulong a ƙarshen shekarar 2023. An mayar da hankali kan mataki na biyu na Hainan Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Refinery, Zhenhai Refinery Phase I da CNOOC Petrochemical Plan a tsakanin shekarar 2023 zuwa 2024. Babu shakka ci gaban albarkatun mai masu sauƙi na sinadarai yana da amfani ga kasuwar mai, don haka yana tallafawa ƙasan ƙasan ƙasan ƙasan ƙasan ƙasan ƙasan ciki har da butadiene dangane da farashi.
Ƙara yawan buƙatar da ke ƙasa
A shekarar 2023, tasirin manufofi masu kyau kamar harajin siyan tashoshin butadiene ya ɗan inganta, kuma an shirya masana'antar roba ta sama. A lokaci guda, ci gaba da inganta matakan rigakafin annoba na ƙasa ya kuma kawo wasu fa'idodi ga kasuwar roba. Ƙara yawan buƙata a lokacin hutun bazara, da kuma fitowar butadiene a ƙasa, ana sa ran zai shigo kasuwa a farkon 2023, kuma buƙatar butadiene a wurin zai ƙaru sosai.
Daga hangen fitowar ƙarfin a shekarar 2023, ƙarfin robar butadiebenbenbenbenbenbenbenbal yana da ƙarancin girma, wanda shine tan 40,000 kawai a shekara; sabon capsule capsule yana da tan 273,000; kasuwar haɗuwar polypropylene da chunyrene-butadiene-lyzyrene. Ƙarfin samarwa shine tan 150,000 a shekara; ABS ta ƙara tan 444,900 a shekara, kuma sabon ƙarfin samarwa na manne Tinto shine tan 50,000 a shekara; Ba abu ne mai wahala ba a ga cewa ana ci gaba da samar da sabuwar na'urar, kuma ana sa ran buƙatar da ke ƙasa za ta ƙaru sosai. Idan aka saki ƙarfin samarwa da ke sama akan lokaci, babu shakka babban fa'ida ne ga kasuwar butadiene.
Bugu da ƙari, yayin da ake ci gaba da inganta manufofin rigakafin annoba na yanzu, tasirin abubuwan da ke haifar da annoba ga shigo da kaya da fitar da kaya zai ragu a hankali a nan gaba. Idan muka yi la'akari da shekarar 2023, yawan wadatar da ake samu daga butadiene zai ƙaru, yawan shigo da kaya zai ci gaba da raguwa, amma farfaɗo da buƙatar ƙasashen waje zai taimaka wajen ƙara yawan fitar da butadiene. Domin daidaita yanayin wadata da buƙata a kasuwannin cikin gida, ƙara yawan fitar da kaya daga ƙasashen waje na iya zama burin kamfanonin samar da butadiene na cikin gida.
Lokacin Saƙo: Fabrairu-23-2023